There is an article in the Friday May 30th Burlington Free Press that predicts a short and shallow falloff in the Vermont Economy. Much has been reported on whether or not we are or are not in a recession- the dreaded "R" word. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and some are longer and deeper than others. It is good news that Jeff Carr is reporting on our first since 2001 that it should be short. 

Vermont in a "short and shallow" recession
By Dan McLean • Free Press Staff Writer • May 30, 2008

For the first time since late 2001, the state's economist will tell his regional counterparts today that Vermont is in a recession.

Jeff Carr, economic consultant to the Douglas administration and president of Economic & Policy Resources in Williston, said the recession is "short and shallow." He said he expects Vermont to begin to recover by the last three months of this year.

The economy will rebound relatively quickly because of the strength of the global economy, the financial health of the business sector and "the unprecedented engagement of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy," according to the "Vermont Economic Outlook" which Carr will present at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston today.

The report, which Carr wrote with Zachary Sears, routinely refers to Vermont's economy as "sluggish" and "stalled."

Job growth for 2008 is projected to decline in Vermont by 0.6 percent -- worse than that of New England or the United States, which showed flat to minimal growth, the report said. (more)